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Forestry Advance Access originally published online on May 29, 2008
Forestry 2008 81(3):429-445; doi:10.1093/forestry/cpn029
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© Institute of Chartered Foresters, 2008. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

This article appears in the following Forestry issue: Wind and Trees Special Issue [View the issue table of contents]

Developing a decision support approach to reduce wind damage risk – a case study on sugi (Cryptomeria japonica (L.f.) D.Don) forests in Japan

Kana Kamimura1 5,*, Barry Gardiner2, Akio Kato3, Takuya Hiroshima4 and Norihiko Shiraishi1

1 Laboratory of Forest Management, Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, The University of Tokyo, 1-1-1 Yayoi, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8657, Japan
2 Forest Research, Northern Research Station, Roslin, Midlothian EH25 9SY, Scotland
3 Toyama Forestry and Forest Products Research Center, Tateyama, Toyama 930-1362, Japan
4 The University Forest in Chiba, Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, The University of Tokyo, 770 Amatsu, Kamogawa, Chiba 299-5503, Japan

* Corresponding author. E-mail: kanak{at}ffpri.affrc.go.jp


   Abstract

A decision support-based approach has been developed in order to help recommend silvicultural treatments for reducing typhoon wind damage in Japanese forests. A case study was conducted on three management scenarios (no thinning, light thinning and heavy thinning) for sugi (Cryptomeria japonica (L.f.) D.Don) stands in Himi, Toyama Prefecture, Japan. The decision support approach integrated models and tools including a mechanistic/empirical wind damage risk assessment model ForestTYPHOON, which includes a modified version of the wind damage risk model, geographical analysis of the losses and effects of storms, and an airflow model, wind atlas analysis and application program. A growth model Silve-no-Mori was linked with ForestTYPHOON to estimate wind damage risk over a 50-year period. After assessing the wind damage risk, risk stands were displayed using a geographic information system. In addition, decision tree analysis provided information on stand characteristics related to wind damage. Approximately 90 per cent agreement was found between the wind damage assessment using ForestTYPHOON and the outputs of the decision trees. The decision trees showed that top height was the most important stand characteristic and provided a critical top height at which silvicultural treatments need to be modified. If the top height exceeds the critical height, any treatments including thinning should be avoided to minimize wind damage risk.


5 Present address: Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, 1 Matsunosato, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8687, Japan

Received 31 July 2007.
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