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Forestry 1975 48(2):123-138; doi:10.1093/forestry/48.2.123
© 1975 by Institute of Chartered Foresters
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The Use of Simulation in the Management of Privately Owned Forests in Britain

M. S. PHILIP

Department of Forestry, University of Aberdeen

The use of simulation as a tool in planning, predicting output, and as part of a system of forest management is discussed and illustrated by an example based on thirty-seven privately owned forest estates in the Dee valley in north-east Scotland.

The simulation model is described and the results of a low and a high level of felling and afforestation are compared. The predicted outputs from the simulation runs are compared with the records of actual output from 1970 to 1972.

The estimated increment and output were:

Annual increment of crops 20 years and older 52,000 m3

Annual output at the ‘high’ level .4,000 m3

Annual output at the ‘low’ level 27,000 m3

Average actual annual output 1970–2 18,000 m3

The conclusions drawn from the results of the management study in the forests of the Dee valley are:

  1. In the past, owners have accepted low rates of return from their forest enterprise, their primary object being to re-create and maintain a forest resource similar to that which existed in the past.
  2. Objective reappraisals of the forest enterprise are exceptional and management is constrained often by arbitrary, rigid, and severe decisions that impose unforeseen consequences on activities in both the forest and other parts of the estate.
  3. The current situation of the forest is very different from that of the past and is continually changing. For example, the demands of modern marketing and harvesting practices are quite different from those imposed even ten years ago, and the proposed Wealth and Capital Transfer Taxes may alter the relative importance to the owners of forest income and capital.

Many forest owners in Britain now require a more objective approach to forest management with continuous reappraisal to ensure that their plans continue to serve their needs. As the financial results of the forest enterprise are especially sensitive to the felling and afforestation programmes, studies to answer the following questions may be needed urgently:

  1. Can a higher output than that harvested at present be sustained in the future?
  2. Should the rate of replacement of mature woods be altered?
  3. Does the current rate of afforestation best serve the objects of management in the light of altered tax commitments and cash liquidity requirements?

Computer simulation can be a useful aid in planning provided that reliable information on costs, prices, and growth rates is available. Forest managers must be encouraged to collect the necessary data.


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